Last week the world was surprised by popular protests in Russia. Now the question on everyone’s lips is – is this the Russian Spring?
There are many reasons why it is not, including a completely different political system, different grievances by the population and the lack of any foreign power either willing or able to intervene. But this article is not going to delve into the political – a huge factor in the Russian Thaw is the use of social media.
I was in Moscow about six weeks ago and for the first time I saw the extent of the disappointment and frustration with the system amongst the city’s citizens. Corruption is not only reserved for oligarchs and ministers, but permeates through all levels of Russian society becoming a petty annoyance of everyday life, from undeserved speeding tickets to unexpected taxes. The government attempted to mask this dissatisfaction by blocking out any effective criticism or honest debate in the mainstream media and instead flooded Russian TV channels with non-stop comedy shows and Hollywood movies on repeat.
However what the state machine does not know is how to tame social media. They do get some marks for trying; on the day of the parliamentary elections the websites of Golos, an independent election monitoring group, and Ekho Moskvy, a radio station, were down due to hacker attacks.
Fortunately, in the internet age it is not so easy to impose silence. The videos of ballot stuffing appeared on YouTube, the protests themselves were captured on thousands of phones and videos of police brutality flooded the web. As Kommersant journalist Alexander Chernykh was being taken to a police van for a bad beating, he tweeted in Russian: “Been taken, being badly beaten. Being taken to a police station.”
Whilst there are similarities to the Arab Spring, the Russian Thaw is a distinctly different predicament. The fundamental difference is that this is not a revolution and Mr Putin will not be toppled in the next few months. In fact, until the recent show of force by the state, most of the population was not even calling for his demise.
The protests will go on, but not every day; the police will continue to behave the only way they know how, and videos, photos and tweets from their victims will carry on appearing on the web. This is important because while Russia still has a road to travel in terms of internet connectivity, there is already a critical mass: about 51 million Russians, just over one third of the population, have internet access and about 30 million are regular users. The usual social media channels will continue to widen the cracks in the current system.
The prolonged nature of the Russian Thaw, as opposed to the high speed of the Arab Spring, means that there will be enough time for internet ingenuity. India is already showing the way with a brilliant website www.ipaidabribe.com - a bribery price comparison site, which embarrasses officials and helps citizens vent their anger. I have full faith that the disgruntled Russian population, known for its dark sense of humour, is going to make the world laugh and cry with new sites, blogs and networks.
Every tweet, every new facebook protest group, every YouTube video is going to be like a drop of hot water onto a block of ice – one will not do anything, but as a constant and relentless stream, they are a force.